AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn Market Mostly 1 to 2 Lower Ahead of Export Sales

October 18, 2019

Corn futures are 1 1/2 to 2 1/2 cents lower ahead of the weekly Export Sales report; they were 3 cents higher at yesterday’s close. There was some net new buying, with preliminary open interest rising 7,624 contracts. The delayed EIA weekly report showed an uptick in daily ethanol production by another 8,000 barrels per day, with 971,000 bpd produced for week ending 10/11. That implies more corn consumption. Ethanol stocks are also up, increasing 817,000 barrels to 22.061 million barrels. Argentinean corn was reported Thursday afternoon to be 24.2% planted. The department of agricultural estimates from Buenos Aires based that percentage on planting intentions of 15.814 million acres. US corn export sales for the week ending October 10 are expected to be in the range of 400-800,000 MT in this morning’s export sale report.

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean Market Extends Thursday Gain Overnight

October 18, 2019

Soybeans futures begin Friday’s session with contracts mostly 2 cents per bushel higher. They were up 2 1/2 to 3 1/2 cents on Thursday. Preliminary open interest rose 14,134 contracts. Soybean meal finished $2.00/ton higher, while soy oil dropped 1 point. Cargill announced a 225 million dollar expansion in Sidney Ohio, with the investment in soybean crush and soy oil refineries for the plant. Trade estimates ahead of this morning’s USDA export sales report range from 900k-1.06 MMT for beans; a substantial decrease from last week’s sales of 2.092 MMT. Traders are also anticipating the report to show up to 400,000 MT (150k-400k) for soy meal; last week export sales were 364,722 MT. Soy oil is expected to see 0-25,000 MT of export sales this afternoon, as compared to the 1,150 MT of export sales last week.

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat Market Pulls Back From Thursday Gains

October 18, 2019

Wheat futures are 2 to 3 cents lower this morning. They had ended Thursday’s session sharply higher. Chicago wheat led the way with 12 1/4 gains for Dec contract. Kansas City wheat gained 6 1/4, while MLPS spring wheat posted 1 1/2 cent gains at Thursday’s close. Argentina is 100% planted for their 2029/20 wheat, as per their WAG report released Thursday afternoon. Their total planting was 6.6 million hectares (16.31 million acres); this was an increase over last year’s 6.2 million planted. Due to early spring frosts the Department of Agricultural Estimates adjusted their production estimate to 20.2 MMT. USDA is expected to show 250,000-500,000 MT in all wheat export sales for the week that ended on October 10. Saudi Arabia is tendering for 595,000 MT of wheat, with a deadline on Friday. Strategie Grains raised their EU wheat production estimate by 1 MMT to 145.5 MMT.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle Market Still Looking for Cash Trade

October 18, 2019

Live cattle futures were 32 lower to 50 higher on Thursday. Feeder cattle futures dropped as much as $1.60 on Thursday due to higher feed costs and weakness in the back month finished cattle. USDA official slaughter for week ending Saturday October 5th is 644,676 head, with 47.2 % steer, 30.9% heifer and 20.1 % cow. The CME Feeder Cattle index another 3 cents higher on 10/16 to $145.15. Wholesale boxed beef prices close Thursday mixed to narrow the spread to 25.51. Choice boxes fell 17 cents to $218.11, with Select boxes noticing a gain of $1.23 up to $192.60. USDA estimated week to date FI cattle slaughter through Wednesday at 462,000 head. That is 5,000 head below last week and 9,000 lower from the same week last year. FCE’s trial sale this Friday has 941 head listed for sale. A few $111 sales were reported in the WCB this week according to USDA.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hogs Weaker Ahead of USDA Export Sales Report

October 18, 2019

Lean Hog futures were down $1.07 to $2.45 in the nearby contracts yesterday. Long liquidation was noted, with preliminary open interest dropping 1,286 contracts. Thursday’s official slaughter under federal inspection revealed that for the week ending 10/5 2,660,215 hogs were slaughtered, with a 2.1% sow slaughter rate. The CME Lean Hog Index closed $1.02 higher to $62.92 on Oct 15. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down $1.44 at Thursday’s close to $76.28. The national average base hog value closed at 57.87, down by $0.81 on Thursday’s. USDA estimated WTD hog slaughter at 1.962 million head, up 10,000 head from last week and 66,000 larger than last year. The USDA weekly pork export sales report will be released at 7:30 AM CDT.

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton Market 19 to 21 Higher Early Friday

October 18, 2019

Cotton futures start Friday 19 to 21 points higher. They posted gains from 13 to 55 points in nearby contracts to finish off Thursday’s session. Ted Mckinney on behalf of USDA is in Vietnam to discuss trade agreements amid trade war with China. Vietnam imports 54% of their approximate 7.3 Million bales from the United States. The majority of the remainder is from India, although they have steadily decreased their Indian imports over the last several years, opening a larger market share for U.S. Portions of western TX are expected to remain dry for the next 7 days, with the eastern half and Southeastern US expected to receive some moisture from a tropical storm. The Cotlook A Index bounced back up 120 points on Oct to 74.00 cents/lb. The updated Adjusted World Price of cotton is now 55.26, up 1.36 from last Thursday’s AWP.

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
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