AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

August 16, 2018

Corn futures ended the Thursday session with most contracts 3 to 4 cents higher. Bulls got help from decent export sales data and spill over from soybeans and wheat. The weekly FAS Export Sales report indicated old crop sales on the light side of trade estimates at 338,983 MT, with new crop higher that the range of expectations at 1.045 MMT. Combined sales in the week of 8/9 were 88.48% larger than the same week last year and 14.16% larger than the week prior. Export shipments of corn were tallied at 1.22 MMT during that week, down from the week prior but 74.67% larger than last year. The primary destination was Mexico at 463,100 MT, with 290,700 MT headed to Japan. China sold 1.53 MMT of corn from state reserves into the domestic market, totaling 38.43% of the amount offered.

Sep 18 Corn closed at $3.65 1/4, up 3 3/4 cents,

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.79 3/4, up 3 3/4 cents,

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.91 1/2, up 3 3/4 cents

May 19 Corn closed at $3.98 1/2, up 3 3/4 cents

Soybeans

August 16, 2018

Soybean futures closed 26 to 28 1/4 cents in the green on Thursday, after China indicated that it would return to the bargaining table with the US for low level talks. That’s not the same as having a deal, but you can’t get a deal if you aren’t talking! Nearby soy meal was up $5.10/ton, with soy oil 27 points higher. A private export sale of 154,404 MT of 18/19 soybeans was reported to Mexico under the USDA’s daily reporting system. The weekly Export Sales report showed old crop soybean sales on the low-end estimates at 133,414 MT. Unknown destinations had a net reduction of 205,500 MT, with most of that being switched. New crop sales were reported at 571,554 MT, up 7.3% from last week. Soybean exports in the week of August 9 were 586,559 MT, down sharply from the week prior and 21% lower than last year. The Inspections report on Monday had already hinted at a smaller number. Soy meal export sales were seen at a combined total of 354,487 MT, as soy oil was just 5,124 MT.

Sep 18 Soybeans closed at $8.85 1/2, up 28 cents,

Nov 18 Soybeans closed at $8.97, up 28 cents,

Jan 19 Soybeans closed at $9.09 1/4, up 28 1/4 cents,

May 19 Soybeans closed at $9.30 1/2, up 26 1/2 cents,

Sep 18 Soybean Meal closed at $334.60, up $5.10,

Sep 18 Soybean Oil closed at $28.15, up $0.27

Wheat

August 16, 2018

Wheat futures saw gains of 10 to 13 cents in most contracts, after getting support from positive export sales data this morning. Thursday afternoon, US Trade Rep Lighthizer stated that he hopes there will be a breakthrough in NAFTA negotiations in the next few days. The USDA reported a private export sale of 200,000 MT of HRW wheat to Iraq for 18/19 through their daily reporting system. Export Sales data showed all wheat sales in the week that ended August 9 at a robust 803,047 MT! That was up 153.3% from last week and a MY high, as it was also 26.8% larger than this same week last year. Mexican importers purchased 247,800 MT of that, with the Philippines buying 177,900 MT. All wheat shipments were tallied at 461,604 MT. That was the largest this MY, and the highest weekly total since April.

Sep 18 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.42 1/4, up 10 cents,

Sep 18 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.47 1/2, up 12 1/4 cents,

Sep 18 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.96 1/4, up 12 3/4 cents

Cattle

August 16, 2018

Live cattle futures settled the Thursday session with most contracts steady to 55 cents higher. Feeder cattle futures were also steady to $1.225 higher. The CME feeder cattle index was down 5 cents from the previous day at $150.29. Wholesale boxed beef values were mixed on Thursday afternoon. Choice boxes were at $209.10 down 85 cents, while Select boxes were up that same amount at $201.46. USDA FI cattle slaughter was estimated at 474,000 head through Thursday. That is down 3,000 head from the previous week and 8,000 head above the same week in 2017. Bids of $108 were still being shown across the country on Thursday. Export sales of beef in the week that ended 8/9 hit 21,529 MT, a 47.9% jump from last week. Export shipments slipped a bit from last week at 16,992 MT, but were 8.14% larger than last year.

Aug 18 Cattle closed at $108.325, unch,

Oct 18 Cattle closed at $109.275, up $0.275,

Dec 18 Cattle closed at $113.200, up $0.400,

Aug 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $150.275, up $1.225

Sep 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $150.125, up $0.975

Oct 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $150.225, up $0.950

Lean Hogs

August 16, 2018

Lean hog futures posted limit gains in the nearby contracts on Thursday, anticipating renewed US/China trade talks later this month. The CME Lean Hog Index was down $1.58 on August 14, to $55.23. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down 86 cents from the previous day at $67.63 on Thursday afternoon. The national base hog carcass value was down 59 cents in the Thursday PM report, with the weighted average @ $41.54. USDA estimated weekly hog slaughter at 1.859 million head through Thursday. That is up 87,000 head from last week, and 67,000 head above the same week last year. Sales of pork export muscle cuts were shown at 26,690 MT during the week of August 9, 7.3% above last week. Pork exports were 19,484 MT in that week, a jump of 43.4% from last week and 12,6% larger than last year.

Oct 18 Hogs closed at $55.475, up $3.000,

Dec 18 Hogs closed at $52.450, up $3.000

Feb 19 Hogs closed at $59.350, up $3.000

Cotton

August 16, 2018

Cotton futures were 83 to 106 points higher in most front months on Thursday, on the potential for renewed dialog between the US and China on trade. It could still be some time before we see any kind of deal. The USDA Export Sales report showed 77,718 RB in old crop upland sales in the week that ended on August 9. Vietnam purchased 24,600 RB, with Pakistan buying 16,900 RB. New crop saw a net reduction of 11,691 RB for upland, with 2,800 RB of pima types sold. Upland cotton exports totaled 240,271 RB in that week, which was 19.92% larger than last year. The Cotlook A index was up 15 points from the previous day at 92.90 cents/lb on August 15. The weekly AWP was updated to 75.45 cents/lb through next Thursday, down 422 points from the previous week.

Oct 18 Cotton closed at 82.130, up 105 points,

Dec 18 Cotton closed at 81.800, up 106 points

Mar 19 Cotton closed at 82.010, up 97 points


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